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  • August 2017 Market Update

    Friday, August 4, 2017   /   by Joe Corbisiero

    August 2017 Market Update

    The market as of right now has a severe shortage of inventory. With the amount of active buyers on the field, it has become a seller's market with the heavy competition. However, although difficult, it not impossible to purchase. With a strong team on your side who entails the knowledge and experience, it can greatly increase your odds of getting into the home of your dreams. 

    San Diego County continues its steady recovery from the 2008 recession and financial crisis. Jobs and income are recovering quickly — a good sign for San Diego’s housing market. In San Diego, as in other regions, the strength of home sales volume depends on a complete jobs recovery.

    Residential construction continues to falter. Thus far, multi-family construction has experienced a quicker recovery than single family residential (SFR) construction. Expect the demand shift from SFRs to rentals to continue, injecting growth into multi-family construction in upcoming years, peaking around 2019-2020. Vacancy rates will then increase, as turnover tenants will increasingly go for homeownership.

    View the charts below for current activity and forecasts for the San Diego housing market.

    Home sales volume still low


    Chart update 06/07/17

    2017 projection* 2016 2015 2003: Peak Year
    San Diego County home sales volume 42,500 43,200 42,800 60,800

    *first tuesday’s projection is based on monthly sales volume trends, as experienced so far this year.

    San Diego County’s 2015 sales volume ended nearly 12% higher than 2014. This boost was partly due to lower mortgage rates in 2015 and to the area’s relatively swift jobs recovery.

    Despite this, sales volume did not increase significantly in 2016, since end users have yet to return to the market in significant numbers, which is now beginning in San Diego. Total sales volume in 2016 was just 1% above 2015. Expect sales volume to continue the slowdown in 2017 following the forthcoming increase in mortgage rates.

    A full recovery of jobs lost in the recession took place in 2014. However, with the intervening population gains, jobs won’t reach a complete recovery until around 2018. At that time, home sales volume will take off, reaching its cyclical peak around 2020-2021.

    Turnover rates are up: good for sales